‘Intriguing Option’ Kyle Tucker Would Be Impact Bat Cubs Need

Kyle Tucker might be the perfect combination of value and impact, a near unicorn surpassed only by Röki Sasaki in this year’s class when it comes to the type of player the Cubs covet. Largely overlooked in favor of two or more of his Astros teammates, the soon-to-be 28-year-old outfielder has been one of the best hitters in MLB since he became a regular in 2020. Over the last five seasons, Tucker ranks among the top 13 qualified hitters in ISO (.346, 13th), wOBA (.373, 13th), wRC+ (143, 10th), and fWAR (20.9, 13th). That’s good.

The players immediately adjacent to Tucker in those categories include fairly big names like Mookie Betts, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Juan Soto. Every one of those players has a good deal more cachet and all but one of them have secured the bag with a contract of at least $175 million over the last three years. All told, we’re looking at around $1.7 billion in free agent deals or extensions, and that’s without Vladito hitting the market yet. At an estimated salary of around $16 million in his last year of arbitration, Tucker is a steal.

Of course, the cost is going to be much higher than that when you factor in the need to part with some legit prospects and big-league players, not to mention an extension. Though a lot of fans believe Jed Hoyer is a prospect-hugging skinflint who lacks both the desire and the stones to make that happen, Tucker is a different animal. Not only does his lone remaining year of control mitigate his acquisition cost, but he isn’t going to command anything approaching the whopper Soto just signed.

I’d say the 12-year, $365 million deal Betts signed with the Dodgers is a closer comparison, except that the Cubs would prefer to pump up the annual average value in favor of a shorter term. They’ve got just enough room under the tax penalty threshold to go as high as $40 million AAV even before clearing space with a Cody Bellinger trade, so I’d set the high end at maybe 10 years, $400 million.

Does it sound insane that Hoyer could potentially offer a deal more than double the club’s largest contract ever? That one also went to a lefty-batting right fielder, though Tucker is a far more accomplished and consistent producer at the plate than Jason Heyward. While I remain skeptical of their ability to pull this off, my doubt is rooted in the heavy competition and inherent difficulty of pulling off big trades in general. As for the Cubs’ interest in Tucker, however, I think it’s very real and they are willing to do what it takes to get him and keep him in Chicago.

That’s why Tucker has “emerged as an intriguing option” for a Cubs team “pursu(ing) multiple avenues for improvement,” per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma. What started as mere speculation in the wake of Astros GM Dana Brown admitting that they are willing to listen to offers on Tucker and Framber Valdez has quickly begun to take shape as a legit possibility. Of course, it takes a lot more than just the Cubs being willing to engage in talks.

What it’s going to take is a strong enough desire to make this happen by outbidding other teams without including Matt Shaw. I almost added Owen Caissie in there, but the possibility of having Tucker patrolling right field for the foreseeable future gives Hoyer a good deal more flexibility when it comes to parting with his outfield prospects. As noted earlier, it’s possible the Cubs could try to include Bellinger and cash as part of a proposal. Either way, their efforts to move him would surely intensify if Tucker talks progress.

Then there’s the matter of Seiya Suzuki, about whom the Cubs have been fielding calls as a function of typical offseason proceedings. Agent Joel Wolfe said Suzuki would be willing to waive his no-trade clause for a “small universe” of teams and added that he probably wouldn’t have chosen a team that just wanted him to DH when he was posted. That makes sense because Suzuki was considered a defensive standout when he was coming over from Japan, but he’s since displayed serious lapses that forced Craig Counsell to keep him out of the field in all but one of his last 37 games played in 2024.

Tucker likewise served as DH frequently down the stretch due to a lower leg injury that kept him on the 60-day IL throughout most of the summer. Otherwise, he is a Gold Glove defender who figures to be in the field far more often than not. Assuming the Cubs can keep things copaceptic with Suzuki, whose numbers were better as a DH anyway, they would have a tremendous lefty-righty combo near the top of the order. And with all due respect to our Facebook commenter who said keeping Bellinger would be the same thing as adding Tucker, this would be a big upgrade.

Remember when Bellinger rebounded last year and was the Cubs’ best hitter with a 136 wRC+ while posting 4.4 fWAR over 130 games? Tucker just put up 180 wRC+ and 4.2 fWAR season despite playing only 78 games. He posted at least 4.9 fWAR in each of the three previous seasons and his stronger batted-ball metrics indicate that he is better equipped to overcome the Wrigley weather Hoyer has publicly lamented. Bellinger has a pretty high floor, but Tucker has the potential to be that star player the Cubs have lacked for far too long.

Even though I know I’m setting myself up for disappointment, I can’t help but fall deeply in love with the idea of adding Tucker. The Cubs still have the collateral to acquire one or two power arms for the rotation and bullpen as well, then they just need to find a way to get Shaw into the lineup. As scary as hope can be, it’s a helluva lot better than acting like Eeyore all winter long.