The Rundown: BP Less Bullish on Cubs Top Prospects, Bregman Could Pivot Toward Short-Term Deal, IFA Signings Slow

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJanuary 15, 2025

Baseball Prospectus dropped its subscription-based Top 101 Prospects for 2025, and there are two things I wanted to point out that may not sit well with Cubs fans. Granted, we do tend to overrate Chicago’s minor league players in ways that sometimes seem unfathomable. For instance, Owen Caissie and Cade Horton are generally considered players the Cubs should not include in any trade talks. I’d add James Triantos to that group just because he makes above-average contact, a skill lacking throughout the organization.

Anyway, the Cubs placed four players in this year’s BP list, and none are surprises. Matt Shaw is ranked No. 26 and it looks like he’ll lose his status as a prospect before the first day of summer. Moises Ballesteros is ranked 73rd, followed by Caissie at No. 77 and Horton at No. 85. Horton was injured most of last year, but should that hurt his status and rank? Even though he’s still the same pitcher, I suppose there is significant risk attached to his profile. I’m not sure why the analysts aren’t more enamored with Caissie. Then again, BP ranked Mike Trout No. 85 in 2010 and he was AL Rookie of the Year two years later.

If you think Chicago’s prospects are ranked too low, you may also be shocked to learn that infielder Zyhir Hope is BP’s eighth-ranked prospect. Hope was included in the trade that sent Jackson Ferris to the Dodgers for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte. Ferris is ranked No. 52, in case you’re wondering, while Busch is entering his sophomore season as Chicago’s starting first baseman. Almonte was DFA’d at the beginning of November.

The Dodgers are also one of three finalists to sign Rōki Sasaki, whom the Cubs coveted. That will be another dagger to the hearts of Cubs fans if the young phenom chooses to sign with Los Angeles. You’re probably wondering if I have a point, and I do. It sure would be nice if Hoyer’s front office attacked its roster decisions with the same aggressiveness that Andrew Friedman does.

Sure, the Dodgers have a $275 million payroll, and Hoyer is a little more hamstrung with the $180-225 million Tom Ricketts allocates him. The Cubs won 15 fewer games than LA last year and didn’t make the playoffs, so I can’t help but wonder why the championship the Dodgers won last season isn’t worth an extra $50 million and change to Ricketts.

A deep run in the playoffs will certainly compensate the team’s owners, but deep runs aren’t guaranteed. Then again, Hoyer lacks Friedman’s actuarial skills, so the extra kick in spending provides little in the way of assurances. Maybe Ricketts knows that and involuntarily clutches his checkbook a little tighter. More likely, Mr. Ricketts is simply risk-averse and Hoyer acquiesces as a good subordinate must. Quite frankly, I’d be shocked if Hoyer doesn’t earn bonuses commensurate with the team’s profits, but I digress.

Losing to the Dodgers at the big league level is one thing, but it’d be a real kick in the stones if Hope and Jackson reach their potential. As much as I like Busch, the trade has a strong chance of being another misevaluation by Hoyer. That’s especially true if Ballesteros, Caissie, and Horton become little more than league-average players. Hope’s ranking — and he was a throw-in, mind you — clearly indicates LA does a better job of developing players than the Cubs do. That should be Hoyer’s undoing, but it won’t be. The Cubs are passably competitive, with two impassioned rivalries in a weak division. They’re also profitable. That will keep Hoyer employed in Chicago until he decides to leave.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

I can’t help but wonder aloud if Sammy Sosa attending CubsCon is the tail that’s wagging Ricketts’ intent to cut payroll.

Central Intelligence

Wednesday Stove

The Mets are holding firm in negotiations with Pete Alonso. They’ve offered the slugging first baseman a short-term deal with an opt-out after Year 1.

Alonso’s camp has reportedly made an exclusive offer to the Mets for a three-year deal with opt-outs, but the differences in the figures from each side are unclear.

Bregman may be having difficulty finding a suitor because his batted-ball numbers are significantly inflated by playing home games in Houston.

Sasaki is holding up the IFA market, so teams are attempting to acquire extra bonus pool money. Earlier today, the Red Sox acquired catcher Blake Sabol from the Giants for IFA space.

The Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox are having the best offseasons in baseball. The Cubs are ranked among the best, but the Cardinals and Braves were noted for completely failing.

The Yankees and Dominic Smith have agreed to terms on a one-year minor league deal.

¿Quién es Más Macho?

Older fans of SNL will remember the Bill Murray-inspired game show bit, so let’s play. Both statements are of the true or false variety and pit Hoyer against Bears GM Ryan Poles.

  1. The Cubs have signed more relievers this winter than the Bears have head coaching candidates.
  2. Hoyer hates spending on relievers more than Poles dislikes spending on offensive linemen.

Extra Innings

The Cubs have yet to announce any IFA signings today. I’m not saying they’re in the running for Sasaki because they’re not. That said, some prospects the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays had handshake agreements with might become available.

They Said It

  • “There were times I did whatever I could to recover from injuries in an effort to keep my strength up to perform over 162 games. I never broke any laws, but in hindsight, I made mistakes, and I apologize.” – Sosa

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

Cubs pitchers and catchers report in 25 days.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJanuary 15, 2025
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