Cubs Must Pay Up if Kyle Tucker Is Viewed as Centerpiece of Contender
Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts very much remind me of the parable of the chicken and the egg. Are Hoyer’s hands tied because his boss won’t approve spending on top-tier free agents, or is he so risk-averse to the potential perils of free agency that he refuses to swim outside his lane?
The Cubs were seventh in payroll last season and regularly outspend the Brewers by about $100 million annually. The last time Chicago finished ahead of Milwaukee in a full season was in 2017. The issue is not about the availability of funds but the manner in which those dollars are spent. I hope that helps.
Does that mean Hoyer could have or should have signed Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani? Neither of those players was interested in playing for the Cubs, so we’ll never know. Soto will earn $51 million per year playing for the Mets, but the Cubs are paying Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson a combined $55.5 million in 2025. Which better represents intelligent spending? I’d rather have Soto in right, Nico Hoerner at shortstop, and Matt Shaw at second base than Swanson and Bellinger, though hindsight is 20/20. I could probably come up with six additional combinations I prefer.
And yes, I understand New York has to pay that annual salary for the next 15 years, but depreciation must be built into that deal because average salaries, payrolls, and CBT thresholds will rise substantially in that time. The luxury tax threshold in 2009 was $162 million and it is $241 million this year, a nearly 49% increase. Soto’s contract will not look so egregious in the mid-to-late 2030s when the cap is in the neighborhood of $285-300 million and some kid who is 11-12 years old today signs the league’s first billion-dollar deal.
But what if you could get a reasonable facsimile of Soto at a fraction of the cost?
A GO-AHEAD GRAND SLAM FOR KYLE TUCKER IN THE 9TH! pic.twitter.com/Z72DpMNA17
— MLB (@MLB) August 9, 2023
That brings me to Kyle Tucker, who is suddenly a viable trade option for Chicago. Tucker is entering his final year of arbitration and is expected to earn $16 million. If the Cubs are going to give up prospects, he has to be extended because they are not a championship team as the roster sits. Heck, they’re not even a Wild Card team, so he has to be a core piece in 2026 and beyond. The lefty slugger would be Chicago’s best hitter since pre-2020 Kris Bryant. Tucker was worth 4.7 WAR in 78 games last season and his 181 OPS+ bested Soto by three points.
It’s not a stretch to assume the 27-year-old will command an 8-10-year deal worth $275 million or more as a free agent after the upcoming season. Is he worth a rental alone, plus the compensatory draft pick Chicago would net with a qualifying offer? Is he chum for the trade deadline if the Cubs underachieve for a third straight season? Leave it to Carter Hawkins to shed light on the subject with his typical business analyst demeanor.
“The term you’ll hear [about rental players] is the marginal value of a win,” Hawkins said yesterday. “Going from 85 to 87 is really, really important. That might be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. You’re also going to put more leverage on those additional wins [when] they’re going to change the potential outcome for your team. When you do that, you’re willing to pay more for those. So, yeah, I think that definitely goes into the calculus.”
Great, but acquiring Tucker also means trading one of Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, or both. That leaves Hoyer netting a win or two while hoping Tucker outperforms expectations and improves the production of his teammates. That’s what the GM means when he says certain players can change the team’s potential outcome.
Tucker would be a great acquisition and I applaud Hoyer for at least kicking the tires. He’s going to have to pay up for his best players sooner or later; otherwise, what is he doing here? Justin Steele will soon need an extension and the clock is already ticking on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch. The mentality of striving for an 85-87 win season has become tiring. If Hoyer trades for Tucker, it has to be with the intention of extending him and building around him. Otherwise, his acquisition could be a waste of long-term assets while adding to the compounding frustration of Chicago’s fanbase.